*From The Conversation
The European Union has survived the last race between pro-EU and anti-EU forces.
Aided by high turnout, pro-EU centrist and left-wing parties together they won more than two-thirds of the seats in the European Parliament elections held in 28 countries from May 23 to 26. Populist parties that aimed at destroying the EU from within produced only modest profits, increasing their participation from 20% to 25% of the 751 countries.
The European Parliament – one of the three institutions involved in the adoption of laws in the European Union – used to be a debating society with no real influence. Today, she has an important role in shaping how EU countries deal with climate change, threats to democracy, immigration and other issues of great interest to European voters.
The election result ensures that populist forces cannot form a blocking minority, which could paralyze the work of the European Parliament.
Regardless of populist forces, the result is messy. No single party has a majority of seats, meaning the EU will be governed by a broad coalition – one that is likely to comfort left, right and center views. I am a scholar of European politics. While the European Parliament relies on negotiations between its own groups, this is the most fragmented I have ever seen.
It is possible that the need to build coalitions between different pro-EU parties may encourage compromise. But with many small parties and differing opinions vying for influence, lawmakers may also struggle to make any concrete legislative progress at all.
Climate change
The pre-election poll showed that European voters saw climate change as a main factor in casting their votes, citing concern for environmental protection and global warming.
In recent months, the student-led school movement against climate change has spread across Europe. These environmental concerns contributed to the increase in representatives of the Green Party, which won 9% of the vote – increasing their parliamentary seats from 52 to 69.
The Greens were particularly effective in Western Europe and with young voters, catching one third of German voters under the age of 30. Their campaign promises to promote immediate climate action, social justice and civil liberties were less successful in Central and Eastern Europe.
"We will need to see much more serious climate action, a real change of attitude: a price on CO2, getting aviation right, greening agriculture," said Bas Eickhout after the elections. Eickhout is a leading member of the Greens in the European Parliament.
However, the pressures of EU countries to meet these environmental goals will not be direct. While 77% of Europeans surveyed in a recent study want to see meaningful action on climate change, European politicians are separated in this matter.
Germany and Poland have refused to approve a bold plan to achieve carbon-neutral economies by 2050. This has put them at odds with many of their EU partners, such as France, the Netherlands and Sweden.
Any legislative action on the environment, as it is reforming EU agricultural or trade policies, will require agreement between parliamentary groups. The possible coalition of centre-right, liberal, centre-left and Green parties would bring groups with very different environmental data.
This is likely to mean more compromise and less ambitious policies.
The rule of law
Members of this uneasy and messy alliance also hold different views on how – and indeed whether – to deal with the decline of democracy across Europe.
The populist leaders of Hungary and Poland have undermined the rule of law for the second time in recent years, limiting the independence of key institutions such as the press and the judiciary. Both countries have passed as well harsh laws that reduce civil liberties, limiting the ability of human rights organizations to act. These laws violate the values of the European Union, a political and economic alliance founded in 1957 with a clear commitment to protect liberal democracy and the rule of law.
But efforts by the EU to sanction Poland and Hungary have hit roadblocks. Populist parties see the condemnation of the EU as a breach in national sovereignty and even more the center of the European People's Party also refused for years to censor Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban because he is a member of their group.
In September 2018, members of the European Parliament ultimately voted 448 to 187 to recommend that Hungary's EU voting rights be suspended - main tool available to scold European countries that violate EU rules.
However, for this harsh sanction to take effect, all EU member states except the offending country must vote in favor of the punishment. This is an impossible bar to clear, especially since Poland and Hungary are defending each other. But if the EU and the European Parliament can't find some way to reprimand Hungary and Poland, it may unreasonably encourage Romania and the Czech Republic to follow in their footsteps.
Immigration
Immigration is another controversial topic that the European Parliament will want to act on in the coming years. Number of undocumented migrants entering Europe has fallen significantly since the 2015 refugee crisis, but pre-election polls showed that many European voters e they saw immigration as a major campaign issue.
After many years of discussion about reforming the common asylum system in Europe, EU member states remain stubbornly separated in this topic.
In both national politics and the European Parliament, the centers and the left in Europe they generally seek to cooperate on a regulated approach to immigration that fairly shares responsibility across the region. But populist parties want closed borders and anti-immigrant rhetoric has fueled their growth.
Given Europe's new divided Parliament, finding agreement on how proceeding with this matter will be difficult.
Europeans have high expectations of their leaders. Polls show that 68% of Europeans see EU membership as beneficial. The high turnout in the European Parliament elections and the strong showing of pro-EU parties confirm that the contested union is experiencing something of a revival.
If EU parliamentarians can forge agreement across the political spectrum, they could push for a renewed pluralist defense of European integration that will satisfy voters on immigration and other critical everyday issues. If there are results of paralysis instead, anti-EU populists may triumph next time.
*Citizens Channel /EK/
